WE had a great OAKS day hitting the 14/1 New Year's Eve in Race 8, my best price play of the day as well as the Pick 4 ending with the Oaks that paid nearly $1100 on a $75 ticket. Here is my Derby Analysis
WIN CONTENDERS:
#6 Messier 8/1 ML:
#12 Taiba 12/1 ML:
#5 Smile Happy
UNDERNEATH: These can be used in exacta and trifectas
#10 Zandon: Very dangerous but too short a price to bet to win
#16 Cyberknife: Broke thru his 2YO top and then ran even better. Just a notch below on figs but he is right there and a price. I expect him to fire a good shot
#8 Charge It, #15 White Abarrio can also be used.
CONCLUSION:
I think #6 Messier will take some beating as long as he breaks well. If he can secure a good position near the front, I expect him to run a big race.
#12 Taiba is the wild card, an uber talented colt with little foundation. The break will be everything. Right now a bit over bet.
#5 Smile Happy is the price play, checks a lot of boxes. If he can get a clean trip, avoid traffic and not race too wide, he can absolutely win this at a big price.
WIN CONTENDERS:
#6 Messier 8/1 ML:
- Fast 2 YO Top
- Quickly matched it and ran it again as a 3YO, making him one of the fastest in the race
- His Last Derby Prep has a final 1/8 that meets the standard of past Derby winners
- Over the last 8 Derbys, winners had either E (Early) or EP (Early/Presser) running styles
- Messier should be forwardly placed
#12 Taiba 12/1 ML:
- Didn’t race as a 2YO which usually disqualifies a colt. However Justify won the TC a few years ago and didn’t have a 2YO race.
- His last was the fastest figure in this race. Never dismiss the fastest horse.
- Has good speed. The break will be important and we will know within the first 100 yards whether or not he has a chance.
- Mike Smith is his jockey, one of the greatest of all time. If Smith can get this colt out of the gate and get position down the backstretch without any issues, he should fire a big shot.
- Last Race final 1/8 also meets the criteria
#5 Smile Happy
- Has a fast 2YO top and quickly ran it again.
- His 2YO top was over this track
- If he can sit behind the first flight, not race too wide and avoid trouble he can absolutely run them down
UNDERNEATH: These can be used in exacta and trifectas
#10 Zandon: Very dangerous but too short a price to bet to win
#16 Cyberknife: Broke thru his 2YO top and then ran even better. Just a notch below on figs but he is right there and a price. I expect him to fire a good shot
#8 Charge It, #15 White Abarrio can also be used.
CONCLUSION:
I think #6 Messier will take some beating as long as he breaks well. If he can secure a good position near the front, I expect him to run a big race.
#12 Taiba is the wild card, an uber talented colt with little foundation. The break will be everything. Right now a bit over bet.
#5 Smile Happy is the price play, checks a lot of boxes. If he can get a clean trip, avoid traffic and not race too wide, he can absolutely win this at a big price.
